Financial Valuation Algorithm for the Assessment
of the Future Sales of a New, Innovative Medicinal Product

Abstract

New emerging requirements by reimbursement authorities and payers and policy changes are increasingly going to determine the actual future sales and also the actual post-launch costs of new, innovative medicinal products. As the future financial performance of a pharmaceutical company is directly related to the revenues of new products, an appropriate assessment of the potential sales forecast of the portfolio of forthcoming new products is an important predictor of the financial value of a pharmaceutical company.

This article presents a financial valuation algorithm for the assessment of the futures sales of a new, innovative medicinal product based on the current reimbursement policies and future business models for reimbursement. The algorithm is applied to possible new products for the treatment of depression and multiple sclerosis.